Israel's Nuclear Arsenal - Espionage, Opacity and Future (July 7, 2010)

What do newly declassified documents about weapons grade uranium and dual-use technology diversions from the US reveal about the role of espionage in building Israel's secret arsenal? Did Israel's proposed nuclear weapons sales to apartheid South Africa signal they are still for sale if the partner and price are right? Do FBI and CIA cover-ups of investigations into Israeli nuclear espionage signal official US government approval or political acquiescence? Did cooperating with Israel's policy of "strategic ambiguity" ever make sense for the United States? Is the era of 'nuclear opacity" now coming to an end? Are Israel's nuclear weapons of strategic benefit to the US? The following panelists tackled these questions.

Sasha Polakow-Suransky is editor of Foreign Affairs magazine at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of the 2010 book "The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Relationship with Apartheid South Africa."

John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science and the co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago and author of the book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" and coauthor of "The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy"

Grant F. Smith is director of the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy (IRmep) and author of the books "Spy Trade", "America's Defense Line" and "Foreign Agents."

Moderated by Middle East analyst Jeffrey Blankfort, host of the Northern California public radio station KZYX international affairs program, "Takes on the World".

High-definition video of the July 7 IRmep conference at the Spy Museum "Israel's Nuclear Arsenal: Espionage, Opacity and Future" is now available online from the Internet Archive (IA):

http://www.archive.org/details/IsraelsNuclearArsenal-EspionageOpacityAndFuture-July72010Panel

Viewers may watch specific segments, share, comment on and email this unedited, uncut HD video using IA's online tools. Highlights include:

00:01:00 Jeffrey Blankfort discusses US government refusals to acknowledge Israel's nuclear arsenal.

00:08:01 Why the Israeli, Apartheid South Africa, and ADL spied on US activists.

00:18:43 Grant F. Smith highlights the significance of the declassification and May 6, 2010 release of the GAO report "Nuclear Diversion in the US? 13 Years of Contradiction and Confusion."

00:23:09 Who established Israel's US nuclear diversion and funding network?

00:32:00 Is there any evidence the US officially collaborated in arming Israel with nuclear weapons technology?

00:37:15 Why aren't any high level Israeli or American arms smugglers ever prosecuted in the US?

00:48:52 Sasha Polakow-Suransky reveals South African yellow-cake uranium transfers to Israel's military.

00:56:31 New revelations about NUMEC diversions to Israel that were released after his book was published.

01:09:35 When will Israeli citizens be allowed to openly discuss the implications of their nuclear weapons?

01:14:26 John J. Mearsheimer reviews why states acquire nuclear weapons.

01:15:05 Debunks the argument that Iran would project power over the Gulf with nuclear weapons.

01:28:00 "Strategic ambiguity" doesn't matter since Israel isn't held accountable in the US.

01:31:49 Why Israel's nuclear weapons undermine US interests.

01:38:25 Q&A with US military, government agency, foreign and domestic press, diplomats, NGOs and students.

Any cable operator, public access show, documentarian, citizen journalist, news organization or other producer may freely download, edit and rebroadcast derivatives of the IA production quality 3.6 GB MPEG-4 under the Creative Commons copyright waiver (CCO 1.0 Universal).

http://www.archive.org/details/IsraelsNuclearArsenal-EspionageOpacityAndFuture-July72010Panel

5 Things You Didn't Know: DNA

It's inside all of us, telling us how to behave, how to function and how to grow. It's your deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and it contains the genetic instructions that essentially make you who you are. Just in the last decade alone, our use and manipulation of DNA has skyrocketed. We now have genetically modified foods and microorganisms, genetic testing for disease and we even know the full sequence of the human genome -- all attributable to DNA. However, with such power comes controversy. Did you know that the human genome was almost commercialized? Well it was -- almost. Here’s a little more on that story, and a few other things you likely didn’t know about our double-helix friend, DNA.

1- The human genome was almost commercialized

Most are not aware, but the project to sequence the human genome (all of the DNA a human possesses) was a vicious race that pitted public interests versus private.
The public arm of the race was lead by the Human Genome Project (HGP), an international consortium of scientists and researchers working at a price tag of a mere $3 billion U.S. The project began in 1990, and was expected to reach completion in 15 years. There were, however, complications.

In 1998, a privately funded quest was launched by J. Craig Venter, president of Celera Genomics. Working on a budget of only $300 million, Celera's effort was projected to proceed faster than the HGP -- a notion that enraged leaders of the public project, especially when Celera’s intentions were made clear. Celera announced that it would seek patent protection on specific genes, and would not permit free distribution of the human genome to public databases. Instead, they planned to harbor a separate database on their private website, and charge for any analyses requested by external researchers.

The announcement by Celera sent leaders of the HGP into a frenzy. With both teams in a bid to win the race, dueling media reports began to emerge. A progress update would be released by one party, and then the claim would be disputed by the other. After several failed partnerships, the two teams managed to release their results almost simultaneously in February of 2000, citing that the race sped up the project, to everyone's benefit.

2- DNA testing is used to authenticate foods like caviar

Who knew that the caviar industry was so ripe with mystery, excitement and illegal activity? It’s likely that most have no idea. The choice delicacy of the affluent, caviar has for years been regulated worldwide by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (C.I.T.E.S.). C.I.T.E.S. has closely monitored stocks of caviar coming from the Caspian Sea -- the body of water responsible for some 90% of the world’s caviar -- in an effort to protect endangered species, particularly sturgeon caviar. As a result, DNA testing has become a staple method of authentication to ensure that incoming caviar is properly labeled and legitimate. However, quite often, testing of the DNA yields an unfortunate result.

Back in 2006, a Toronto company was fined for importing caviar from three rare, protected sturgeon species -- the beluga, sevruga and osetra -- whose caviar can fetch up to $150 per ounce. Such reports are merely the tip of the iceberg for an industry dominated by organized crime. "The appetite of smugglers for profit has the potential to extinguish them [sturgeon] from the Earth," said Tom Sansonetti, assistant attorney general of the Justice Department's Environment and Natural Resources Division in a past interview. Illegal smuggling of caviar is, in fact, so widespread that Environment Canada estimates the black market for caviar to be worth between $200 and $500 million globally in 2005.

3- Full genome DNA testing can be had for as little as $1,000

Have you ever wondered what you looked like on the inside, you know, on a DNA level? Pacific Biosciences, a California biotech company, predicts it will soon be able to sequence an entire human gene map in just four minutes -- and only for a cool grand.

Now, to some of you, $1,000 is a lot of money, but just think about the big picture. Pacific Biosciences is offering a service that took the Human Genome Project almost 10 years and $3 billion to achieve -- and now it’s available in four minutes and for far less! The ramifications are truly remarkable, establishing a new precedent in personal genomics. In January 2008, Knome and the Beijing Genetics Institute (BGI) announced that they would sequence entire genomes for $350,000. And if you think that’s expensive, an anonymous Chinese citizen paid $1.3 million to have their genome sequenced by BGI in 2007. Talk about a dynamic market flux.

So, what’s the point? Paying such ludicrous prices to have your genome sequenced is kind of silly at this time as most researchers don’t even know where to begin when looking for genes that cause disease. Sure, some hazardous genes have been identified, but sifting through the entire genome to get a detailed prediction is like finding a needle in a haystack.

4- The first-ever DNA evidence cleared a murder suspect

In 1983 and 1986 two schoolgirls were found raped and murdered in the small town of Narborough, Leicestershire, sparking a murder hunt that led to the conviction of local man Colin Pitchfork -- but not before police arrested and nearly convicted their prime suspect, an unnamed local boy.

Apparently, the young boy knew physical details about one of the bodies and actually confessed to one of the murders. Convinced that the boy had actually committed both crimes, officers sought further confirmation. Using a crude DNA extraction technique, Dr. Peter Gill analyzed semen samples from the victims and found that they did not match the DNA of the young boy. The boy thus became the first ever suspect exonerated on DNA evidence.

Amazingly, police then led the world’s first DNA intelligence-led screen and sampled blood from literally all the men in three surrounding villages. However, after 5,000 samples, no match was found -- the murderer had pulled the old switcheroo. A friend of the murderer was overheard some time later talking about how he had switched the blood sample of Colin Pitchfork’s with his own. Mr Pitchfork, a local baker, was soon arrested and sentenced to life in prison for double homicide.

Since this historic case, DNA evidence has become a primary tool in numerous crime convictions, providing a level of confidence unparalleled: The odds that an individual with a matching DNA profile was selected by chance alone is about one in one billion. There’s no arguing that.

5- DNA says Genghis Khan was a prolific lover

Ghengis Khan, one of the most fearless warriors, was both ruler and emperor of the Mongol empire. However, according to recent DNA evidence, it is also very likely that he helped populate his empire.

In 2003, an international group of 23 geneticists published results of a study that examined the Y chromosomes of 2,123 men from across Asia. The study found that nearly 8% of the men living in the region of the former Mongol empire carried nearly identical Y-chromosomes. The Y chromosome is passed down from father to son to grandson, and so on. Extrapolating the data a bit further, the researchers estimated that nearly 16 million descendants carried similar Y chromosomes.

While there are various explanations as to how this phenomenon could have arisen, the authors attribute the most likely scenario to the prolific seed-sowing of none other than Ghengis Khan. Khan’s empire spanned across most of Asia, he frequently slaughtered all who opposed him, thus limiting genetic variation. Khan often got the first pick of women whom he frequently raped, and some of Khan’s sons were noted as having as many as 40 children. Putting all the evidence together, one can’t help but consider Genghis Khan as the most prolific man history has ever known -- except for maybe Jesus, whose DNA was recently unearthed according to a controversial documentary, The Lost Tomb of Jesus -- but that’s an entirely different story.

Because DNA is the building block of all living organisms, and with our increasing understanding of disease we are entering a new genetic era where testing of our DNA will become as commonplace as turning your head and coughing.

Like a first love, DNA will attract infatuation that will burn through the ages -- at least for science buffs. As long as humankind quests to further human health, we will tinker with DNA. Whether the public remains interested depends on how far we choose to manipulate DNA. With human cloning and other controversial bombshells waiting just around the corner, expect DNA to remain in the public eye for decades to come.

Resources:
http://en.wikipedia.org
www.sciencemag.org
www.ec.gc.ca
www.cites.org
www.msnbc.msn.com
www.forensic.gov.uk
http://news.nationalgeographic.com

Weapons Of Mass Destruction: A Briefing

Since the dawn of humanity, there has been armed conflicts. Unfortunately, the level of technical advancement has always dictated the intensity of savageness. At first, weapons of choice included stones and sticks. Then, bows and arrows, spears, and crossbows facilitated the taking of lives. Along the way, Greek fire and later black powder made armies stronger.

Firearms made wars even bloodier, but it wasn't enough. The stakes of wars became higher and higher, and winning meant developing more devastating armaments. In the 20th century, mankind had reached its pinnacle. We now have the possibility to destroy the planet thousands of times over. We now have weapons of mass destruction.

Although Westerners are predominantly those who talk about weapons of mass destruction, the term was actually coined by the Soviet military establishment during the Cold War for their in-house documents. They understood that modern weaponry was far more powerful than anything conceived before. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is a broad expression that encompasses weapons that are nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological (my focus is on the former three), and have the potential to devastate the world of its inhabitants.

NUCLEAR

Atomic weapons were born in World War II. The Allies were taking a beating in all theaters of operation and what was even scarier was the fact that the Germans were trying to harness the powers of nuclear fission with their own Virus House Project. Those who would succeed, would rule the universe.

The Americans therefore initiated the Manhattan Project. One of the most secretive military endeavors in recorded history, the venture rallied some of the most brilliant minds in the world such as J. Robert Oppenheimer and Albert Einstein. By 1945, at a cost of $2 billion, they had made three bombs: "Gadget," "Fat Man," and "Little Boy." The first was only a test model. The others would be used in the war.

Although Germany had capitulated in May, the Japanese were still fighting. They were offered surrendering terms but turned them down. The Allies then decided it was time to put an end to the war. On August 6, 1945, a U.S. plane dropped Little Boy over Hiroshima, Japan, and three days later, Fat Man was used on Nagasaki. Over 200,000 people died from those two bombs. If the blast didn't kill them, the radioactive fallout did.

After the War, a new enemy emerged: The USSR and its Communist regime. The KGB had an extensive network of spies and a considerable scientific infrastructure. Before long, they were in possession of precious atomic secrets. They detonated their first nuclear bomb in 1949. The Cold War was underway.

The two vast countries started to stockpile nuclear weapons, developing a strategic standoff. The objective was to sharpen the reaction time to the other country's first strike initiative. Neither nation was about to launch a nuclear war but they wanted to be able to retaliate as quickly as possible if the other side did. In that spirit, the Soviets moved some nuclear ballistic missiles to Cuba in October 1962. For 13 days, the prospect of a nuclear holocaust had never felt so real.

Since then, the end of the Cold War convinced world powers to decrease their nuclear arsenal. The problem now lies with rogue nations and terrorist organizations. While it took geniuses to come up with the theoretical research that made the first atomic devices, the technology is now so widespread that it has become possible for almost anyone with the right resources to build a nuclear bomb. The predicament is that terrorists who seek this technology are not concerned about safety or failsafe mechanisms; they build their bombs to use them, not as a deterrent.

CHEMICAL

The theory behind chemical weapons is that it's the toxic nature of the compound that reacts with the target. In most cases, there's no explosive involved; it's simply the use of chemical products in an aggressive manner. For example, if you were to release a stink bomb in a roomful of people, that could be considered a chemical attack.

Chemical weapons first appeared in warfare during World War I. Artillery shells were loaded with chlorine gas, phosgene, or mustard gas. While the former two were both asphyxiants, the latter was especially popular during the conflict and was the most dreaded of all chemical weapons. It would cause the skin to blister and irritate the lung tissues; enough exposure could cause death. In 1925, a treaty was signed (The Geneva Protocol) to prohibit the use of weapons of this nature.

But that didn't stop its usage. The Italians used them in their war against Ethiopia and the Japanese later did so in China and Manchuria. It also caused damage in the Iran-Iraq conflict in the '80s. The toxins can be delivered through the air or in a food or water supply. Depending on the chemical employed, these weapons' effects can range from annoying to incapacitating to downright lethal.

More dangerous chemical weapons were invented. Sarin was developed before World War II, but only recently has it been utilized; in 1995, the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo released this neurotoxin in the Tokyo subway killing 12 people and wounding thousands. One milligram is all that's needed to kill a human. An even more powerful nerve agent was later concocted: VX gas. The main difference is that this product doesn't need to be inhaled; a mere drop on the skin will prevent the brain from communicating with the rest of the body, causing almost instant death.

This gas has never been used in combat (but it was featured in the film The Rock ).

BIOLOGICAL

The principle behind biological weapons is similar to chemical warfare, only harm comes from a bacteria or virus. With the number of diseases that medical experts are at a loss to explain, like AIDS and Ebola, it's definitely one of the most feared forms of weapons of mass destruction. With genetic modifications and a controlled spreading method, the entire population could be annihilated.

Aside from the anthrax mailing cases that made waves on the East Coast in 2001, which can be considered attacks of this type, the use of biological weapons dates back to 1346, during the siege of Kaffa, a Genoese port on the Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea.

But one of the most famous uses of biological warfare was in 18th century North America. Looking to deal with the "Indian problem," blankets infected with smallpox were sent to Native Americans in both Canada and the United States. Since these tribes had never been in contact with such a disease, they were very susceptible and the casualty rate was high. It is believed that certain governments are presently holding smallpox samples -- a virus that is considered extinct -- and could deploy it as a biological weapon.

Of the countries that are believed to hold one form of WMD or another, the areas of concentration are North Africa and the Middle East, Eastern Europe and former Soviet Republics, and Asia. Of course, world leaders like France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have them too.

As of the publishing of this article, Iraq could be on the brink of attack if proof of weapons of mass destruction is found. Of course, most of the world is thinking about the repercussions of a war in which weapons of mass destruction are used.

While most countries possessing such weapons claim they do so in order to retaliate in the event of an attack, any country that acquires weapons of mass destruction raises suspicion within the international community.

Also, such destructive armament has always been popular in the entertainment world. They are the bread and butter of authors like Tom Clancy and have made movies such as The Rock, Outbreak, and The Sum of All Fears blockbusters. Weapons of mass destruction nurture fear and panic, and they will be a part of pop culture for as long as they remain a military reality.

Nuclear Weapons

"The human race cannot coexist with nuclear weapons."
-Iccho Itoh

Nuclear weapons have the world divided; while there are dozens of those who are against them -- and for damn good reason -- there are still those who support them, such as Britain’s ferocious ex-prime minister Margaret Thatcher. Essentially, a nuclear weapon is a bomb that uses nuclear fission/fusion to unleash its destructive power. Unlike other bombs, however, nuclear weapons not only destroy its target through blast and/or fire, but also leaves behind radiation that affects the area for years to come. There has only ever been two nuclear weapons detonated throughout history -- on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki -- but the impact on history has been significant. Despite the immediate deaths on both occasions, it is far outweighed by the number of people who died from the long-term effects of radiation. Nuclear weapons remain controversial, with many countries denying they are in possession of them. Countries that do admit to possessing them include the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. The advantages of possessing a nuclear weapon include deterrence and defense, while a key disadvantage is posing a constant threat to countries not in possession.

Nuclear Weapons on AM

The use of nuclear weapons has been the subject of major international debate since their debut, and it’s essential that everyone -- including upstanding gentlemen such as yourself -- understands their impact on the world and the way people react to them. Nuclear weapons have been mentioned on AM before now though; in Alan Sugar’s profile, the British entrepreneur famously said: “If there was a market in mass-produced portable nuclear weapons, we’d market them too." It isn’t only the devastating effects of nuclear weapons that are cause for concern, but what these consequences represent -- the ability for world domination. And if that doesn’t strike fear into your heart, then we’re afraid nothing will.

Nuclear Weapons Fact

More than 95% of all the world’s nuclear weapons are said to be in the United States and Russia.